Väestönmuutokseen

Väestönmuutos, also known as demographic transition, is a model that describes the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, agricultural economies, and limited social mobility to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, industrial economies, and higher social mobility. This transition is typically divided into four stages.

Stage 1 is characterized by both birth and death rates being high and relatively stable. This results in little to no population growth. Many pre-industrial societies existed in this stage for extended periods.

Stage 2 witnesses a decline in death rates due to improvements in sanitation, healthcare, and food supply, while birth rates remain high. This leads to a rapid increase in population growth.

Stage 3 sees a further decline in death rates and a beginning of a decline in birth rates. Factors contributing to the falling birth rate include increased urbanization, access to education, and changing social norms regarding family size. Population growth continues but at a slower pace.

Stage 4 is characterized by both birth and death rates being low and stable, leading to slow or even zero population growth. Some developed countries have entered or are approaching a Stage 5, where death rates may exceed birth rates, resulting in population decline. The concept of väestönmuutos is a fundamental framework for understanding population dynamics and predicting future population trends.