Vorlaufindikator

Vorlaufindikator, or leading indicator, is a term used to describe a metric that tends to move before the overall system, providing early signals of future changes in economic activity or other processes. It is contrasted with coincident indicators, which reflect the current state, and lagging indicators, which confirm trends after they have begun. Leading indicators aim to forecast the direction, timing, and strength of upcoming movements, helping analysts, policymakers, and businesses plan ahead.

In economics, common leading indicators include stock market performance, consumer confidence surveys, new orders for durable goods, housing permits, and the yield curve. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and weekly unemployment claims are frequently cited examples. The usefulness of any leading indicator depends on the stability of its historical relationship to future outcomes and may vary across countries and sectors.

Leading indicators are often combined into composite indexes to filter out noise and improve signal quality. Methodologies for constructing these indicators include diffusion indexes, time-series forecasting, and probabilistic models that estimate the likelihood of a recession or expansion several weeks or months ahead. Proper interpretation requires consideration of lead times, data revisions, and context-specific factors.

Limitations include the risk of false signals, sensitivity to methodology, and the influence of structural changes or policy interventions. Therefore, Vorlaufindikatoren are typically used alongside coincident and lagging indicators, qualitative assessments, and domain knowledge within a broader analytical framework.