Unwägbarkeit

Unwägbarkeit is a German term that denotes unpredictability or the quality of being unforeseeable. It refers to outcomes or developments that cannot be reliably forecast or weighed against available information, making planning and decision-making particularly challenging.

Etymologically, unwägbarkeit is formed from un- (negation) and wägbarkeit (weightability, the ability to weigh or gauge). The idea behind the word is that certain possibilities cannot be meaningfully weighed or compared, because they lie outside what can be inferred from data or experience.

In practice, unwägbarkeit is used in risk assessment, strategic planning, economics, and philosophy to describe residual or intrinsic uncertainty that emerges despite models and analyses. It often points to events or factors that lie beyond the reach of prediction, including rare or novel developments, complex interactions, and deeper systemic changes.

Distinctions from related terms can be subtle. Unwägbarkeit emphasizes the failure or impossibility of weighing or forecasting possibilities, whereas Unvorhersehbarkeit highlights the mere impossibility of foreseeing specific events, and Ungewissheit denotes a broader state of lacking information. In some contexts, these terms overlap, and authors may use them interchangeably, depending on focus.

See also: Unvorhersehbarkeit, Ungewissheit, Risiko, Prognose.

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