Tundlikkusstseenariuanalüüsi

Tundlikkusstseenariuanalüüsi (Estonian for “sensitivity scenario analysis”) is a quantitative method used primarily in risk assessment, financial modeling, and project management to evaluate how variations in input parameters influence outcomes. The technique combines sensitivity analysis with scenario planning, allowing analysts to explore both incremental changes and plausible future states of a system.

In a typical application, a base scenario is defined using a set of nominal input values. Sensitivity analysis is then performed by systematically varying each input—often one at a time—to measure its effect on key outputs such as net present value, cost overruns, or probability of success. The results are usually presented as sensitivity indices, tornado charts, or spider plots that rank variables by impact.

Scenario analysis adds layers of complexity by replacing individual parameter variations with coherent narratives: for example, “high inflation” or “technology disruptions.” Each scenario incorporates a set of correlated parameter shifts, and the model evaluates outcomes under these alternative worlds. By overlaying sensitivity results onto scenario outcomes, stakeholders can identify not only which variables are most influential but also under what conditions they become critical.

Applications of tussunlikkusstseenariuanalüüsi are found in investment appraisal, environmental impact studies, supply chain risk management, and policy analysis. The method supports decision makers by clarifying uncertainty, prioritizing data collection, and highlighting resilience strategies. It is widely regarded as a robust complement to traditional statistical risk assessment techniques.