Samankaltaisuusharha

Samankaltaisuusharha refers to a cognitive bias where people tend to overestimate the likelihood of events or situations that are similar to events they have recently experienced or are currently experiencing. This bias can lead to flawed decision-making, as individuals may place undue importance on superficial resemblances rather than a thorough analysis of underlying probabilities or causal factors. For example, if someone recently experienced a series of negative outcomes after making a particular type of investment, they might be excessively cautious about future investments that share even minor similarities, even if the underlying conditions are different.

The effect of samankaltaisuusharha is rooted in our tendency to rely on heuristics, or mental shortcuts, when processing information. Similarity can be a powerful heuristic, as it allows us to quickly categorize and make judgments based on past experiences. However, this can lead to errors when the perceived similarity is misleading or when important differences are overlooked. This bias can be particularly pronounced in situations involving uncertainty or when individuals are under time pressure. Recognizing samankaltaisuusharha is important for critical thinking, as it encourages a more objective evaluation of information and a reduced reliance on potentially deceptive resemblances.