Päästöskenaarioineen

Päästöskenaarioineen refers to emission scenarios, which are plausible future pathways for greenhouse gas emissions. These scenarios are crucial tools used in climate modeling and policy analysis to understand potential future climate change impacts. They are not predictions of what will happen, but rather illustrative stories of how human activities might evolve and their consequences for the atmosphere.

Scenarios are developed by considering various factors, including population growth, economic development, technological advancements, energy use, land-use changes, and climate policies. Different combinations of these factors lead to different emission pathways. For example, a scenario with rapid economic growth and limited climate action would likely result in high greenhouse gas emissions, while a scenario with strong international cooperation on climate mitigation and sustainable development would lead to much lower emissions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has historically used various sets of emission scenarios, such as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and more recently the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios provide a common framework for researchers worldwide to assess future climate risks, impacts, and potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. By exploring a range of plausible futures, policymakers can better evaluate the potential consequences of different choices and inform decisions on climate action.