Plahvatusrisk

Plahvatusrisk is a hypothetical concept in risk analysis that describes the probability and severity of rapid, cascading disruptions within an interconnected system following a high-magnitude initiating event, sometimes termed a plahvatus event. The term emphasizes the combined assessment of initiating stress and the network’s vulnerability to propagation, rather than focusing on a single component. It is used in discussions of complex infrastructure, financial networks, and cyber-physical systems to illuminate how close interdependencies can amplify disturbances.

Contributing factors include network topology, shared dependencies, limited redundancy, latency in control systems, and feedback dynamics that amplify disturbances. Measurement relies on scenario analysis, network simulations, and probabilistic risk models to estimate outcomes such as outages, economic losses, and recovery times. Common indicators include node load imbalances, reserve sufficiency, interdependence indices, and time-to-stabilization.

Mitigation strategies aim to reduce both the likelihood of initiation and the potential for propagation. Approaches include redundancy and diversification of dependencies, modular design, real-time monitoring, rapid isolation capabilities, and robust incident response planning. The concept has appeared in academic literature and policy discussions as a framework for enhancing resilience in critical infrastructure and other highly interconnected domains. See also cascading failure, systemic risk, resilience, interdependence.