Outcomeswitching

Outcomeswitching is a term used in decision theory and behavioral science to describe the tendency of individuals to alter the outcome they pursue or expect after observing outcomes of prior choices. It refers to changes in preferred goals or strategies in response to feedback from realized results, rather than changes in the underlying probabilities of outcomes themselves.

In experimental settings, outcomeswitching is observed when participants switch from one option to another after receiving feedback that the initial choice yielded a less favorable result or when new information makes an alternative outcome more attractive. The behavior can be understood as a form of learning or belief updating, driven by regret, revision of expected utility, or Bayesian adjustment to observed data.

Outcomeswitching is related to, but distinct from, broader concepts such as preference reversal, where stated and revealed preferences diverge, or status quo bias, where individuals resist change. It also intersects with prospect theory and reinforcement learning, which describe how people revise choices in light of gains and losses or prediction errors, respectively, but outcomeswitching focuses specifically on switching the target outcome rather than the evaluation of options alone.

Measurement of outcomeswitching typically involves tasks with multiple competing end goals or outcomes and tracking transitions in chosen outcomes across trials. Analyses may model switching likelihood as a function of outcome discrepancy, payoff structure, and prior experience, using approaches from econometrics or computational psychology.

Applications of understanding outcomeswitching include improving consumer choice architecture, designing investment or policy interventions, and interpreting behavior in dynamic environments where feedback continuously updates decision targets. See also: regret theory, reinforcement learning, Bayesian updating, preference reversal.