Optimismusfehler

Optimismusfehler, also known as the optimism bias, is a cognitive bias that causes people to be overly optimistic about their future outcomes. It is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. This bias is prevalent across various aspects of life, from personal relationships and career choices to financial planning and health decisions. For example, people tend to believe they are less likely than others to experience misfortunes such as divorce, unemployment, or illness, while simultaneously believing they are more likely to experience positive events like success in their career or a long and healthy life.

The optimism bias is thought to stem from several psychological and evolutionary factors. It may be an adaptive mechanism that encourages individuals to take risks and pursue goals that might otherwise seem too daunting. A degree of optimism can be motivating and contribute to well-being and resilience. However, excessive optimism can lead to poor decision-making. Individuals may underestimate the risks associated with certain actions, leading to inadequate preparation, insufficient saving, or engagement in unhealthy behaviors. This bias is often unconscious, meaning individuals are not typically aware of their tendency to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate negative ones. Understanding the optimism bias is crucial for making more realistic assessments of future probabilities and for developing strategies to mitigate its potential negative consequences.