Mikrobiriskit

Mikrobiriskit is an open-source software toolkit designed to support quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). It provides a modular framework for modelling the probability and severity of illness resulting from exposure to microbial hazards in foods, water, and clinical settings. The project emphasizes probabilistic reasoning, uncertainty characterization, and reproducible workflows through Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian updating, and dose–response modeling.

Key components include hazard modules for pathogens such as Salmonella, Listeria, and norovirus; exposure models for ingestion, inhalation, or contact routes; and dose–response curves (exponential, beta-Poisson). The toolkit supports data import from common formats (CSV, JSON), parameter estimation, scenario comparison, and visual reporting of risk distributions and cumulative risk.

Mikrobiriskit originated in a European research collaboration in the early 2010s and is maintained by an international community of microbiologists and data scientists. The codebase is hosted on a public repository under an open-source license, with contribution guidelines and issue tracking to facilitate transparency and peer review.

It is used by researchers to quantify baseline risk, evaluate control measures such as cooking temperatures or water disinfection, and inform public health decision making. The software supports policy analysis, risk communication, and education in QMRA.

Limitations include that results depend on the quality and relevance of input data and model assumptions. Users must select appropriate dose–response models, verify input distributions, and communicate uncertainty and limitations clearly. It is intended to complement, not replace, expert judgment in risk assessment.