Microsimulaties

Microsimulaties, or microsimulation models, are computational tools used to estimate the effects of policy changes on individuals or households by applying policy rules to micro-level data. The term microsimulatie is Dutch, and microsimulaties is its plural form.

These models are typically built from microdata drawn from household surveys or administrative records. Each record represents an individual or household, with variables such as age, income, family status, and employment. Policy rules—such as tax schedules, benefit eligibility, and transfer amounts—are applied to every unit, producing a simulated outcome. Static microsimulation yields a one-year snapshot; dynamic microsimulation advances units through time to capture life events and transitions (employment, retirement, children, migration), sometimes incorporating behavioral response or macro drivers.

Outputs are distributional statistics that describe how a policy change affects different groups. Common measures include after-tax income, tax burdens, welfare payments, poverty and inequality indicators, and the evolution of public budgets.

Applications span tax and welfare reform, pensions, health care, housing, transport, and environmental policy. Advantages include detailed insight into equity and distributional effects; limitations include data availability and quality, the need for transparent assumptions, calibration to macro targets, and computational demands.