Lastprognose

Lastprognose is the forecast of electricity demand in a power system, produced by grid operators, transmission system operators (TSOs), and other market participants. It serves as a basis for generation scheduling, reserve planning, and grid operation, helping to ensure reliability and economic efficiency.

Forecasts cover various time horizons, from hours ahead to seasonal or yearly projections. Short-term Lastprognose informs real-time dispatch and unit commitment, while longer horizons support capacity planning, market bidding, and investment decisions. Forecasts are typically aggregated by region or network area to reflect transmission constraints and local demand patterns.

Methods used to generate a Lastprognose combine statistical modeling, weather data, and expert judgment. Common approaches include time-series models (such as seasonal ARIMA or exponential smoothing), regression models with weather and calendar variables, and machine learning techniques. Ensemble methods and probabilistic forecasts are increasingly used to express uncertainty. Key inputs include historical load, temperature, wind, solar generation, holidays, economic indicators, and cross-border energy exchanges.

Outputs usually consist of planned load profiles by hour and region, sometimes with confidence intervals or probabilistic scenarios. These forecasts guide generation scheduling, reserve requirements, market clearing, and congestion management. They are also used by policymakers and analysts to assess demand trends and reliability.

Challenges include data quality, rising penetration of distributed energy resources, weather variability, and the need for fast, accurate updates. In German-speaking markets, Lastprognose is routinely published by TSOs for the near term, with operators such as 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT, and TransnetBW providing regional forecasts. See also: load forecasting, demand forecast.