Konjunkturene

Konjunkturene is a term used in economics to describe the fluctuations of economic activity around a longer-term growth trend. In common usage it refers to alternating periods of expansion and contraction in measures such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment, production, and inflation. The concept helps explain why economies grow for a time, slow down, and then recover.

A typical cycle includes four phases: expansion (upswing), where output and employment rise; a peak, where growth slows and inflationary pressures may build; a contraction or recession, where activity falls and unemployment tends to rise; and a trough, which marks the bottom before activity begins to recover. The duration and magnitude of cycles vary across countries and eras.

Leading indicators such as order books, consumer confidence, and financial market conditions try to signal turning points, while coincident indicators like GDP and employment move in step with the cycle. Lagging indicators, such as the unemployment rate and inflation, confirm trends only after they have begun.

Causes of konjunkturene are multifaceted, including changes in demand, supply shocks, financial conditions, and policy measures. Theoretical explanations range from Keynesian views emphasizing demand management to real business cycle and new Keynesian frameworks that incorporate price rigidities and monetary policy. Policy aims to smooth cycles through monetary policy (interest rate adjustments, inflation targeting) and fiscal policy (automatic stabilizers, countercyclical spending), though effectiveness is limited by lags and uncertainty.

Historically, konjunkturene have produced significant economic and social effects, with notable episodes such as the Great Depression, postwar growth, oil shocks, the 2008 financial crisis, and more recent global slowdowns.