Konjunktionsrisker

Konjunktionsrisker, also known as conjunction risks or compounding risks, refer to the possibility that multiple risks or adverse events could occur simultaneously or in close succession, thereby amplifying their impact. This contrasts with the assessment of individual risks in isolation, as the combination of factors can lead to a disproportionately severe outcome. These risks can arise from various sources, including economic, political, environmental, or social phenomena.

For instance, in a financial context, a konjunktionsrisk might involve a simultaneous downturn in a major economy, a sudden increase in commodity prices, and a geopolitical crisis. Each of these events might be manageable on its own, but their convergence could trigger a significant global recession or market collapse. Similarly, in project management, a konjunktionsrisk could be the concurrent failure of several critical suppliers and an unexpected regulatory change, leading to project delays and cost overruns that would not have occurred with just one of those issues.

Identifying and understanding konjunktionsrisker is crucial for effective risk management. It requires a holistic approach that considers interdependencies and potential cascading effects between different risk factors. Scenario planning and stress testing are common methodologies used to explore such combined risks and develop more robust mitigation strategies. Ignoring these compounding effects can lead to underestimation of potential losses and inadequate preparedness for crises.