HanskiPatchDynamik

HanskiPatchDynamik is a theoretical framework within landscape ecology that extends metapopulation concepts to dynamic habitat networks. Building on the ideas of Hanski’s patch dynamics, it models how occupancy of discrete habitat patches evolves when the landscape itself changes over time, including patch creation, disappearance, and variation in quality or connectivity. The aim is to describe viability and persistence of species in landscapes that are not static, such as those affected by climate shifts, land-use change, or natural disturbances.

In HanskiPatchDynamik, each patch i at time t has an occupancy probability p_i(t) that ranges between 0 and 1. The change in occupancy is governed by colonization and extinction processes. A simplified core form is dp_i/dt = c_i(t) [1 − p_i(t)] − e_i(t) p_i(t), where c_i(t) is the time-dependent colonization rate and e_i(t) is the time-dependent extinction rate. Colonization c_i(t) depends on the connectivity to other patches, often written as c_i(t) = m × sum_j a_ij(t) p_j(t), where a_ij(t) represents the connection strength between patches i and j and can change as patches appear, disappear, or shift in quality. Extinction e_i(t) reflects patch-specific factors such as size, quality, and local threats, which may also vary over time.

A defining feature is the dynamic network: the set of patches and their interconnections evolve, creating a time-varying topology that feeds back into occupancy dynamics. This framework is used to explore conservation scenarios, such as how increasing habitat fragmentation, restoration efforts, or climate-driven habitat shifts influence metapopulation viability.

Limitations include data requirements for time-varying connectivity and patch attributes, computational complexity, and potential identifiability issues in parameter estimation. See also Hanski’s patch dynamics, metapopulation theory, and dynamic networks for related concepts.