Ereignisbaumen

Ereignisbaumen, often translated as "event trees," are a graphical modeling technique used to systematically analyze the potential outcomes of a specific initiating event. They are commonly employed in risk assessment and safety engineering, particularly in industries such as nuclear power, chemical processing, and aviation. The fundamental principle of an event tree is to start with a defined initiating event and then follow a sequence of subsequent events or system responses, illustrating how these factors can lead to different final states.

The structure of an event tree begins with a single initiating event, which is typically a failure or a disturbance. From this initiating event, branches extend to represent the success or failure of subsequent safety functions or barriers. Each subsequent event can be considered a node in the tree, with two branches emanating from it: one for success and one for failure. The paths through the tree, from the initiating event to a final outcome, are called "event sequences" or "scenarios." Each scenario represents a unique combination of successes and failures of the system's safety features.

The outcome of each sequence can range from a safe state to a severe accident, depending on the specific system and the events that occur. Probabilities are often assigned to each branch, allowing for the calculation of the overall probability of each final outcome. This quantitative aspect makes event trees valuable for understanding the likelihood of different accident scenarios and for identifying critical safety functions. By visualizing the cause-and-effect relationships, event trees help engineers and safety professionals to identify vulnerabilities, evaluate the effectiveness of safety measures, and make informed decisions to mitigate risks.