Dürreforecast
Dürreforecast is a term used to describe forecast products that project drought conditions and their likely severity over a future period. It is produced by meteorological and hydrological services, research centers, and climate agencies and may combine near-term weather forecasts with longer-term climatic projections to estimate drought risk.
Dürreforecasts typically rely on drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Drought Index
Methods include statistical approaches, dynamical models driven by general circulation models, data assimilation, and machine learning.
Applications include early warning and decision support for water resource management, agriculture, municipal planning, and disaster
Limitations include uncertainties from model structure, input data quality, and climate variability. Non-stationarity and changes in