Delphisessies

Delphisessies are structured forecasting sessions that use iterative rounds of questioning to produce a consensus forecast. They involve a panel of experts drawn from relevant domains, and rely on anonymized responses and controlled feedback to minimize authority bias and encourage genuine convergence on uncertain topics.

Origin and etymology: The name Delphisessies derives from the Delphi method, a mid-20th-century approach developed for policy and technology forecasting. The plural form reflects multiple sessions or repeated cycles within a program, and the term is used in some consultancy and research contexts to distinguish these iterative rounds from one-off surveys or open-ended discussions.

Methodology: A facilitator assembles a suitable panel and defines the scope. In the first round, participants provide forecasts, estimates, and rationale. Results are synthesized into a feedback report that highlights areas of agreement and disagreement. In subsequent rounds, participants review the compiled feedback and may revise their positions, often with the option to adjust probability estimates or scenario assumptions. The process continues until consensus emerges, or until results stabilize and further rounds yield diminishing returns.

Variations and applications: Delphisessies can be conducted online or in person, synchronously or asynchronously, and may incorporate quantitative scoring or scenario envelopes. They are used in strategic planning, technology forecasting, risk assessment, and policy analysis where uncertainty is high and diverse expert judgment is valuable.

Advantages and limitations: Proponents cite reduced bias, improved information sharing, and more actionable forecasts. Critics warn of artificial consensus, potential non-response bias, and resource intensity. The quality of outcomes depends on careful panel selection, question design, and disciplined facilitation.

See also: Delphi method, consensus forecasting, scenario planning.