Delphimenetelmään

Delphimenetelmään, often translated as the Delphi method, is a structured communication technique originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique aims to achieve a consensus forecast among a group of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with controlled feedback. The process is typically conducted in rounds, with each round involving the distribution of a questionnaire to the participating experts. Following the completion of a questionnaire, a facilitator compiles the responses, analyzes the results, and provides a summary of the group's aggregate opinion, along with the range and reasoning behind differing viewpoints, back to the experts. This feedback allows individual experts to reconsider their previous answers in light of the group's collective judgment. The process is repeated until a satisfactory level of consensus is reached or a predetermined number of rounds have been completed. The Delphi method is widely used in various fields, including technology forecasting, policy making, and business strategy, to gather expert opinions on complex or uncertain issues. Its strengths lie in its ability to tap into diverse expertise, overcome geographical limitations, and mitigate the influence of dominant personalities often present in face-to-face meetings. However, it can be time-consuming and requires careful design of the questionnaires and feedback mechanisms to ensure validity and reliability.