Delphilike

Delphilike refers to forecasting and decision-support processes that resemble the Delphi method. It denotes a family of consensus-building techniques in which a panel of experts answers questionnaires in multiple rounds, with feedback between rounds to refine opinions. The goal is to converge on well-reasoned judgments about uncertain subjects while reducing the influence of outspoken participants.

A Delphilike process usually begins with expert selection and question design. In each round, participants provide responses and brief rationales, often anonymously. Afterward, researchers summarize results, highlight areas of agreement and disagreement, and share statistical measures of dispersion. Rounds continue until results stabilize or predefined criteria are met. Modern implementations are commonly online or automated, using software to collect responses and track consensus.

Applications include technology forecasting, policy analysis, risk assessment, and strategic planning. Benefits include structured elicitation of expert opinion, transparent reasoning, and reduced influence from dominant voices. Criticisms center on potential selection bias, time requirements, and the risk of artificial convergence if the design is flawed.

Etymology and note: The term derives from Delphi, the ancient Greek oracle, highlighting iterative, anonymized feedback. Delphilike is not a standardized method and is used variably to describe Delphi-inspired elicitation approaches.