submodels

Submodels are models derived from a larger model by fixing or constraining certain parameters, variables, or structural elements, yielding a simplified version that can be analyzed or used for prediction. Submodels are common in statistics, machine learning, and scientific modeling as a way to explore parameter importance, reduce complexity, or improve interpretability.

Construction methods include nesting, where a reduced model includes a subset of the predictors from the full model; fixing parameters at particular values; constraining coefficients to zero; or marginalizing over variables. In Bayesian contexts submodels arise when conditioning on fixed values of hyperparameters or covariates.

Evaluation often involves comparing the submodel to the full model using likelihood-based tests, information criteria such as AIC or BIC, cross-validation, or Bayesian model comparison. Submodels may be nested, meaning the full model can be recovered by freeing constraints.

Common examples include linear regression with a subset of predictors, autoregressive time-series models with fewer lags, and neural networks with fewer layers or units within a larger architecture. In ensemble and multi-task learning, submodels may function as base learners or conditioned components.

Limitations include potential bias if the constraints are inappropriate, instability when data are limited, and the risk that conclusions drawn from submodels do not generalize to the full model.

See also nested models, model selection, hierarchical modeling, regularization, ensemble learning.