reproduktionsmedizinische

Reproduction number metrics describe the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical infectious individual under specified conditions. The basic reproduction number, R0, characterizes a pathogen's transmissibility in a fully susceptible population with no interventions, indicating whether an outbreak can grow (R0 > 1) or decline (R0 < 1). Time-varying figures, such as Rt or Re, reflect current conditions, including immunity levels, behavior changes, interventions, and seasonality, and can differ across time and populations.

Rt denotes the reproduction number at a given time point, capturing how transmission evolves as a response to control measures or changing susceptibility. Re is sometimes used interchangeably to denote an effective reproduction number that accounts for the current state of the population, such as partial immunity or ongoing interventions, though terminology can vary by field.

Estimation methods range from statistical inference using observed incidence data and generation-time distributions to model-based approaches that incorporate contact patterns, transmission heterogeneity, and stochastic effects. Data sources include case counts, serial intervals, and, increasingly, genomic data through phylodynamics. Model outputs inform forecasting, resource planning, and assessment of intervention effectiveness.

Applications include guiding public health responses, setting threshold targets for control, and evaluating the potential impact of vaccination or behavioral changes. Limitations arise from underreporting, reporting delays, and biases in case data, as well as assumptions about generation time, population structure, and heterogeneity in transmission. Consequently, Rt and related metrics should be interpreted with consideration of context, data quality, and model assumptions. Related concepts include generation time, serial interval, and herd immunity thresholds.