prognosfel

Prognosfel, or prognosis error, denotes the inaccuracy between an expected outcome and the actual result. The term is most commonly used in medicine, where it describes incorrect predictions about survival, disease trajectory, or treatment response. It can also apply to other forecasting contexts, such as weather or economics, where forecasts may prove wrong.

In medical practice, prognosfel can influence treatment choices, patient and family expectations, and planning for care and resources. Causes include limited or biased data, patient heterogeneity, and evolving disease dynamics. Cognitive biases—such as optimism bias, overconfidence, or anchoring to initial estimates—can further distort prognostication. Prognostic accuracy depends on data quality, the validity of models, and the timescale of prediction.

Assessment of prognostic accuracy uses concepts such as calibration (how close predicted probabilities are to observed frequencies), discrimination (ability to distinguish those who will experience an event from those who will not), and validation in independent cohorts. Clinicians may employ prognostic models, nomograms, or biomarkers, while highlighting uncertainty and the need for re-evaluation as new information emerges.

Efforts to reduce prognosfel emphasize evidence-based prognostication, clear communication of uncertainty, and shared decision making. This includes updating predictions with new data, using validated tools, multidisciplinary discussions, and timely involvement of palliative or supportive care when appropriate. Recognizing and addressing prognosfel aims to support better patient-centered decisions and resource allocation.