pivotals

Pivotals is a concept used in political science and electoral analysis to denote actors whose support is decisive in close political contests. Pivotals can be individual voters, voting blocs, or representatives in a legislature, and they are characterized by their potential to flip an outcome when margins are narrow. The term does not refer to a fixed demographic, but to a position in the space of possible outcomes where a small shift in preferences or turnout can change who wins.

Origins of the term derive from the idea of a pivot point in a balance; analysts describe pivotals as the 'marginal' or 'swing' elements whose alignment determines the winner. In legislative bargaining, pivotal actors can be those whose approval is necessary to form a majority, while in elections they can be the voters in key districts or states with swing margins. The concept helps explain why campaigns focus resources on marginal constituencies rather than only on broad-based support.

Identification and measurement: pivotals are identified through probabilistic models, counterfactual simulations, and marginal analysis that compute how small changes in turnout or preferences alter outcomes. The set of pivotals may shift between elections as demographics, issues, and candidates change. Campaigns and pollsters use the concept to prioritize messaging and get-out-the-vote efforts.

Criticism: some scholars argue that emphasizing pivotals can overlook the importance of stable coalitions and policy platforms, while others warn against over-targeting and neglect of non-pivotal voters. The concept also assumes the ability to influence individual outcomes in aggregate ways, which may be uncertain in large, complex systems.

See also: swing voter, pivotal coalition, marginal voter, pivotal politics.