megatrender

Megatrender is a term used in business forecasting and strategic planning to describe a dominant, long-term trend expected to reshape multiple industries and societies over years or decades. Unlike short-term market movements, megatrenders are characterized by scale, persistence, and cross-cutting influence across technology, demographics, energy, governance, and beyond. The term is common in consulting, journalism, and strategic planning but is not part of formal academic nomenclature.

Identification of megatrenders typically involves horizon scanning, cross-industry data analysis, and scenario planning to explore how interacting forces—such as aging populations, urbanization, climate change, digitalization, and globalization—could unfold over a multi-decade horizon. Proponents argue that megatrend insights help uncover long-term opportunities, shape policy priorities, and inform corporate strategy by anticipating shifts in demand, labor markets, and infrastructure needs.

Common examples cited as megatrenders include demographic shifts like aging populations in developed countries, rapid urbanization in many developing regions, ongoing digital transformation and advances in artificial intelligence, and the transition to low-carbon energy and resource efficiency. Additional megatrenders often discussed include changes in work patterns, education, healthcare, and global value chains driven by technology and data.

Critics note that the term can be vague, overhyped, or difficult to measure, and that an emphasis on megatrenders may overlook localized risks or short- term disruptions. Despite these criticisms, megatrender analysis remains a popular framework for long-range planning in business, government, and non-profit organizations.