majandustsükli

Majandustsükkel, known in English as the business cycle, refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in an economy. It is characterized by fluctuations in aggregate economic activity, typically measured by gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, industrial production, and inflation. These cycles are not perfectly predictable in terms of their timing or duration, but they generally consist of four phases: expansion, peak, contraction (or recession), and trough.

The expansion phase is marked by increasing economic output, rising employment, and growing consumer spending. Businesses typically invest more, and inflation may start to accelerate. This period continues until the economy reaches its peak, where growth is at its highest point and signs of overheating, such as rapid inflation or asset bubbles, may emerge.

Following the peak, the economy enters a contraction or recession. During this phase, economic activity declines, unemployment rises, and consumer and business confidence wanes. Investments decrease, and production may fall. This downturn continues until the economy reaches its trough, the lowest point of economic activity. After the trough, the economy typically begins to recover and enters a new expansion phase, restarting the cycle.

Various factors can influence and trigger these cycles, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, technological advancements, consumer and business sentiment, and external shocks like natural disasters or geopolitical events. Understanding the business cycle is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and manage economic risks.