kolbudgeten

Kolbudgeten is a term used in climate policy to describe the maximum amount of carbon dioxide that may be released from burning coal and other fossil fuels while keeping global warming within a specified limit. In practice, it is often discussed as part of the broader carbon budget—the total cumulative CO2 emissions compatible with a given temperature target, such as 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The kolbudgeten is typically expressed in gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) and depends on the chosen target and the probability level (risk tolerance) used in climate modelling. Since coal is among the most carbon-intensive energy sources, the coal share of the budget is relatively small, and many analyses frame the kolbudgeten as highlighting how quickly coal must be phased out if the target is to be met.

Calculation and uncertainties: The budget arises from climate models linking cumulative CO2 emissions to near-surface warming, and it is sensitive to assumptions about climate sensitivity, non-CO2 forcings, and future technology. It declines as emissions accumulate, creating a shrinking budget in subsequent years.

Policy relevance: The kolbudgeten informs policy discussions about energy transition, coal phase-out timelines, and national accounting of emissions. It is often used to argue for rapid decarbonisation of the electricity sector and investments in zero-emission energy.

Limitations: Budgets are estimates with large uncertainties; they do not specify how emissions should be distributed across countries and do not account for potential negative emissions or feedbacks.

See also: Carbon budget; Climate target; Fossil fuels; Coal phase-out; Energy transition.