kausikorjattu

Kausikorjattu refers to a statistical adjustment made to economic data to account for regular seasonal fluctuations. Many economic indicators, such as retail sales, unemployment rates, and housing starts, exhibit predictable patterns that repeat each year. For example, retail sales typically surge in the fourth quarter due to holiday shopping. These seasonal variations can obscure underlying trends and make it difficult to compare data from different periods.

Seasonal adjustment removes these predictable seasonal components from the data, revealing the more fundamental, non-seasonal movement. This allows for a clearer understanding of economic performance and facilitates more accurate forecasting. For instance, a reported increase in retail sales might be entirely due to the holiday season, and after seasonal adjustment, the underlying sales trend might actually be flat or declining.

The process of seasonal adjustment involves various statistical methods, often using specialized software. These methods aim to identify and isolate the seasonal patterns from the non-seasonal components, which include cyclical trends, irregular fluctuations, and long-term growth or decline. When economic data is presented as "seasonally adjusted," it means that the impact of predictable seasonal changes has been removed. This is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and analysts who need to interpret economic performance accurately. Without seasonal adjustment, year-over-year comparisons might be misleading, as they could be influenced by the timing of holidays or weather patterns.