itseregressio

Itseregressio is a statistical modeling technique used to predict future values of a time series based on its past values. In essence, it's a regression where the dependent variable is a value of the time series itself, and the independent variables are previous values of that same time series. The "self" in "itseregressio" refers to this relationship of the variable with itself over time.

The most basic form is an autoregressive model of order 1, denoted as AR(1). This model states that the current value of a time series is a linear function of its immediately preceding value, plus a random error term. The equation is typically represented as Yt = c + φYt-1 + εt, where Yt is the value at time t, Yt-1 is the value at time t-1, c is a constant, φ is the autoregressive coefficient, and εt is the error term. A positive φ indicates that a high value at time t-1 is likely to be followed by a high value at time t, and vice-versa. A negative φ suggests an inverse relationship.

Higher-order autoregressive models, AR(p), include more past values as predictors, such as Yt = c + φ1Yt-1 + φ2Yt-2 + ... + φpYt-p + εt. The selection of the appropriate order 'p' is crucial and is often determined using techniques like the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plots, or information criteria like AIC and BIC.

Itseregressio models are a fundamental component of more complex time series analysis frameworks, such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models, which also incorporate moving average terms and differencing to handle non-stationarity. These models find applications in forecasting economic trends, weather patterns, stock prices, and various other phenomena that exhibit temporal dependencies.