expertpeiling
Expertpeiling is a practice in which a structured elicitation of judgments is sought from a selected panel of experts on a particular issue where data are incomplete or uncertain. The aim is to synthesize informed assessments rather than public opinion, and to quantify uncertainty where possible.
Typically, expertpeiling involves designing questions, choosing experts, collecting estimates or probabilities, and aggregating the responses. Methods
Common variants include the Delphi method, which uses several rounds with anonymized responses and feedback; and
Applications include technology forecasting, risk assessment, policy analysis, climate projections, and strategic planning. Benefits include leveraging
Origins lie in mid-20th century efforts to forecast outcomes in science and defense research, with the Delphi