esperables

Esperables is a term used in some forecasting and risk-assessment contexts to denote events or outcomes that are reasonably expected to occur within a specified horizon, given a probability model or empirical data. An esperable event is more than merely possible; it has a non-negligible likelihood and, in some definitions, yields consequences that are relevant for planning or evaluation.

Etymology and scope: The coinage derives from esperar, the Spanish verb meaning to hope or to expect. In practice, different fields supply different operational definitions. Some practitioners define esperables as events with probability above a chosen threshold; others regard them as outcomes that appear frequently enough in historical data to matter for decision-making.

Decision relevance: In risk management and operations research, esperables guide resource allocation and contingency planning by focusing attention on outcomes that are both likely and impactful. They are distinct from merely possible events and from highly unlikely, catastrophic events.

Examples: A weather forecast of a 40–60% chance of rain in a region over a 24-hour window may be treated as esperable for planning outdoor activities. In software testing, a reproducible error that occurs in a small but non-negligible fraction of executions is esperable under large test runs.

Relationship to related concepts: Esperables relate to probability, expectation, and risk assessment. They are not a formal standard term in mainstream statistics, and definitions vary by domain. See also probability, expected value, likelihood, risk.