eelarveprognoose

Eelarveprognoos is a forward-looking projection of expected government revenues and expenditures for upcoming fiscal years, prepared before the official annual budget. It is a planning instrument used to illustrate how current policies and macroeconomic conditions could shape the fiscal position, including potential deficits or surpluses. The forecast can cover the coming year and extend to multiple years ahead as part of a multiyear financial plan.

Content and methodology: It typically rests on macroeconomic assumptions such as growth, inflation, and employment, and includes revenue projections from major tax sources and other revenues, as well as projected current expenditures, capital investments, transfers, and debt service. It may include contingency allowances and scenarios to reflect uncertainty and risk. Data are drawn from national statistics, forecasters, and government departments, and are updated as new information becomes available.

Process and use: In many systems, eelarveprognoos is prepared by the ministry of finance or a dedicated budget unit in collaboration with line ministries and central banks or statistical offices. It accompanies the budget proposal or is released during the budget cycle to inform decisions, test policy options, and communicate fiscal expectations to the legislature and the public. It also underpins the multiyear financial framework and helps assess sustainability and the impact of policies over time.

Limitations: As a forecast, it is subject to uncertainty and revision. Outcomes depend on economic developments, policy changes, and data revisions; actual results may differ from projections, especially in times of volatility.