anen
AnEn, short for Analog Ensemble, is a data-driven probabilistic forecasting method used in meteorology and related fields. It constructs forecast ensembles by exploiting historical analogue situations: when the current atmospheric state resembles past states, the observed outcomes from those past times are used to form a forecast distribution. This approach treats forecasts nonparametrically, relying on empirical evidence rather than assuming a particular statistical form.
The method builds a predictor or feature vector from current model outputs and observed conditions, such as
Applications and scope commonly include temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar irradiance, with particular emphasis in short-
Limitations involve the need for large, high-quality historical datasets to provide sufficient analogs, sensitivity to the