Terminalværdi

Terminalværdi refers to the estimated value of an investment or business at the end of a discrete projection period in financial modeling. It is a crucial component of the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, a valuation method used to estimate the worth of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. The terminal value captures the value of all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period.

There are two primary methods for calculating terminal value. The first is the perpetuity growth model, which assumes that the business will continue to grow at a constant, sustainable rate indefinitely. The formula typically involves dividing the last projected cash flow by the difference between the discount rate and the perpetual growth rate. The second method is the exit multiple approach, which uses a market multiple, such as a price-to-earnings ratio or enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, applied to a relevant financial metric at the end of the projection period.

The terminal value often represents a significant portion of the total valuation in a DCF analysis. Therefore, the assumptions made in its calculation, such as the perpetual growth rate or the exit multiple, have a substantial impact on the overall estimated value of the asset. Sensitivity analysis is often performed to understand how changes in these assumptions affect the terminal value and, consequently, the final valuation. Careful consideration and justification of these assumptions are essential for a robust financial model.