SteuermultiplikatorAnalysen

Steuermultiplikator, or tax multiplier, is a macroeconomic concept that measures how much real GDP changes in response to a change in taxes. It is typically defined as the ratio of the change in output to the change in taxes (ΔY/ΔT), holding other factors constant. In practice, a tax cut reduces taxes and tends to raise household disposable income and spending, while a tax increase lowers disposable income and spending, leading to lower GDP. The sign and magnitude of the multiplier depend on how taxes are structured (lump-sum versus distortionary taxes), the marginal propensity to consume, and the responsiveness of monetary policy.

In standard short-run Keynesian analysis, the tax multiplier is negative when taxes rise and positive when taxes fall, but its absolute value is usually smaller than that of the government spending multiplier. The size of the effect is influenced by factors such as the degree of monetary accommodation, open-economy dynamics, the level of unused resources, and the presence of automatic stabilizers. Tax policy can also affect investment through incentives and expected cash flows, with potential implications for long-run output.

Estimation of the tax multiplier relies on structural macro models, econometric studies, and natural experiments around tax reforms. Estimates vary widely across countries, time periods, and tax instruments (income taxes, payroll taxes, consumption taxes), reflecting different fiscal rules and policy credibility.

Limitations of the concept include model dependence, assumptions about timing, expectations, and behavioral responses. The tax multiplier is a useful tool for fiscal analysis but should be interpreted within the broader policy context, including spending, debt dynamics, and monetary policy.