Proliferationskapazität

Proliferations refer to the spread of weapons, technologies, and know-how that enable the development and use of armaments. In international security, the term most often refers to weapons of mass destruction—nuclear, chemical, and biological arms—as well as delivery systems and the dual-use equipment and expertise that can support them. Proliferation dynamics are described as vertical (expansion of a program within a state) and horizontal (transfer of capabilities to other states or non-state actors).

Since the mid-20th century, efforts to curb proliferation have centered on treaties, verification, export controls, and diplomacy. Notable regimes include the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Biological Weapons Convention, along with export-control regimes such as the MTCR and widely used safeguards by the IAEA. Sanctions and diplomatic measures are also employed to deter or halt a program.

Proliferation occurs through illicit procurement networks, front companies, and the transfer of dual-use technologies that have legitimate civilian applications but can support weapon programs. Globalization and regional conflicts can accelerate spread, while security incentives and intentions determine whether a state pursues or halts a program.

Policy responses aim to deter, constrain, and ultimately reduce proliferation risk, by combining legal obligations, verification, export controls, financial measures, and political settlement. Effective proliferation resistance relies on transparency, robust end-use monitoring, and international cooperation to close supply chains.

Challenges include dual-use ambiguity, enforcement gaps, and rapid advances in science and technology. The growth of illicit networks, cyber capabilities, and state-sponsoring environments complicates efforts to detect and deter illicit transfers. Prominent historical cases involve North Korea, Iran, and chemical weapons used in Syria.