PERTSchätzung

PERTSchätzung is a German term that translates to "PERT estimation" in English. It refers to a project management technique used to estimate the time required to complete a task or project. PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review Technique.

The PERT estimation method involves identifying the three most likely time estimates for a task: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. The optimistic estimate is the shortest possible time in which the task can be completed, assuming everything goes perfectly. The pessimistic estimate is the longest possible time, assuming significant delays and setbacks occur. The most likely estimate is the realistic time frame for completion under normal circumstances.

These three estimates are then used to calculate a weighted average, known as the expected time. The formula typically used is: Expected Time = (Optimistic + 4 * Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6. This formula gives more weight to the most likely estimate, as it is considered the most probable duration.

The PERTSchätzung technique is particularly useful for projects with a high degree of uncertainty or for tasks that have never been undertaken before. By considering a range of possible outcomes, it helps project managers to develop more realistic timelines and to identify potential risks and dependencies. It provides a more robust estimate than a single-point estimate by acknowledging the inherent variability in task durations. This method is a key component of PERT analysis, which also includes network diagrams and critical path analysis to manage project schedules effectively.