Mikrosimuloinnin

Mikrosimuloinnin, often translated as microsimulation, is a computational method used to model the behavior and interactions of individual units within a system. These units can represent various entities such as people, households, firms, or vehicles, depending on the context of the simulation. The core principle of microsimulation is to represent the population as a collection of distinct individuals or agents, each with their own attributes and rules governing their actions.

The simulation proceeds by advancing time in discrete steps. At each step, the model applies a set of rules or algorithms to each individual unit. These rules can describe a wide range of behaviors, including demographic transitions (births, deaths, marriages), economic decisions (consumption, savings, labor supply), or physical movements. The outcomes of these individual-level processes are aggregated to understand the overall system dynamics and to predict aggregate trends.

Microsimulation models are employed across numerous fields, including economics, social policy, urban planning, and environmental science. For instance, in economics, microsimulation models are used to analyze the impact of tax and welfare policies on income distribution and poverty. In transportation, they simulate the movements of individual vehicles to assess traffic congestion and infrastructure needs. The strength of microsimulation lies in its ability to capture heterogeneity within a population and to model complex interactions that might be missed by aggregate statistical models. It allows for the exploration of "what-if" scenarios by altering model parameters or policy rules.