Loftslagsfræði

Loftslagsfræði, or climatology, is the scientific study of climate—the long-term patterns and variability of weather in a region and the processes that produce them. It examines how the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere interact to shape climate.

Climatology aims to describe past and present climate, understand the mechanisms driving climate variability, and forecast future climate under different scenarios. It distinguishes natural fluctuations from long-term trends caused by human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change.

Key methods include analysis of instrumental records (temperature, precipitation, wind), paleoclimate proxies (ice cores, tree rings, corals), and satellite observations. Climate models, from global general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate models (RCMs), simulate the climate system and are used for detection, attribution, and projection. Reanalysis products combine observations with models to provide consistent historical climate fields.

Subfields encompass physical climatology, historical climatology, paleoclimatology, and applied climatology or climate services. Applications range from improving weather forecasts and understanding impacts on water, agriculture, health, and infrastructure to informing policy on adaptation and mitigation.

Historically, climatology emerged from meteorology and geoscience, gaining prominence with concerns about climate change in the late 20th century. Current challenges include regional uncertainty, data gaps, and the need for higher-resolution models to inform local decision-making.