Kovariationsmodell

Kovariationsmodell, or the covariation model, is a theory in attribution theory proposed by Harold Kelley in 1967. It explains how observers infer the causes of other people's behavior by assessing the covariation of the behavior with potential causes across time, contexts, and observers. The central idea is that people try to determine which factor is responsible by examining how the target behavior varies when a suspected cause is present or absent.

The model relies on three types of information. Consensus information assesses whether other people react to the same stimulus in the same way. Distinctiveness information examines whether the actor responds similarly to different stimuli. Consistency information evaluates whether the actor responds in the same way to the same stimulus across occasions. By integrating these cues, observers judge whether the most probable cause is internal (the actor's disposition) or external (the situation or stimulus).

A typical use of the model is to explain how people attribute causes in everyday social judgments. For example, if many people react similarly to a stimulus (high consensus) and the actor responds specifically to that stimulus (high distinctiveness) and does so repeatedly (high consistency), the cause is more likely external. Conversely, if consensus and distinctiveness are low but consistency is high, attribution tends toward the actor's internal disposition.

Criticisms include that the model assumes access to systematic covariation information and rational processing, which may not hold in real judgments. Real-world attributions are influenced by cognitive biases, motivation, and context, leading to deviations from the model’s predictions.