Klimatscenarios

Klimatscenarios, often translated as climate scenarios, are plausible future pathways for the Earth's climate system, typically developed by scientists. They are not predictions but rather tools used to explore potential future climate conditions under different assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions, socioeconomic development, and other influencing factors. These scenarios help researchers understand the potential impacts of climate change on various aspects of the environment and human society.

The development of climate scenarios relies heavily on complex climate models. These models simulate the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice, and they are run under various emission and socioeconomic pathways. Common frameworks for developing these scenarios include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and more recently the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). RCPs describe different possible greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere by the end of the century, while SSPs provide a narrative about future socioeconomic development that influences emissions and adaptation capacity.

By analyzing the outputs of climate models run under different scenarios, scientists can project changes in global average temperature, sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These projections are crucial for informing policy decisions, adaptation strategies, and risk assessments related to climate change. It is important to note that while scenarios explore a range of possibilities, the actual future climate will depend on human choices and actions.