Frühindikatoren

Frühindikatoren, also known as leading indicators, are economic or financial data points that tend to change before the overall economy changes. They are used by economists and analysts to predict future economic activity, such as recessions or expansions. The idea is that these indicators anticipate shifts in the business cycle, providing a heads-up on what might be coming.

Examples of common Frühindikatoren include new orders for manufactured goods, building permits, the stock market (specifically stock prices), and consumer confidence surveys. If manufacturers see a significant drop in new orders, it might suggest a future slowdown in production and potentially broader economic contraction. Similarly, an increase in building permits often precedes a rise in construction activity and employment.

The reliability of Frühindikatoren can vary. They are not always perfect predictors and can sometimes send false signals. Economic conditions, global events, and policy changes can all influence their behavior. Therefore, economists typically look at a range of indicators together rather than relying on a single one to make forecasts. Their value lies in providing an early warning system, allowing businesses and policymakers to prepare for potential shifts in the economic landscape.