Felülbecsülése

Felülbecsülése is a Hungarian word that translates to "overestimation" in English. It refers to the act of assessing something as having more value, worth, ability, or quantity than it actually possesses. This can apply to a wide range of situations, from personal judgments to economic forecasts.

In everyday life, felülbecsülése can manifest as overestimating one's own skills, like believing one is a better driver than average, or underestimating the time needed to complete a task. It can also involve overestimating the positive qualities of another person or a situation, leading to disappointment when reality falls short.

Economically, felülbecsülése can be seen in market bubbles where asset prices are driven up far beyond their intrinsic value due to optimistic expectations. Similarly, project managers might overestimate the chances of success or underestimate the potential risks involved in a venture.

Psychologically, this phenomenon is often linked to optimism bias, a cognitive bias that causes people to believe they are less likely to experience negative events and more likely to experience positive events than is objectively true. It can also stem from wishful thinking or a desire for a particular outcome. Recognizing the tendency towards felülbecsülése is a crucial step in making more realistic assessments and informed decisions.