Felülbecslik

Felülbecslik, also known as overestimation, is a cognitive bias where individuals tend to evaluate their own abilities, knowledge, or likelihood of success higher than they actually are. This phenomenon can occur in various contexts, including personal assessments, professional evaluations, and decision-making processes. Felülbecslik is often attributed to several factors, such as the self-serving bias, where people attribute their successes to internal factors and their failures to external ones, and the illusion of control, where individuals overestimate their ability to influence outcomes.

Research in psychology and behavioral economics has extensively studied felülbecslik, highlighting its implications for both individual and collective decision-making. For instance, in team settings, felülbecslik can lead to overconfidence in one's contributions, potentially resulting in poor group performance. Similarly, in financial markets, felülbecslik can contribute to irrational investment decisions and market bubbles.

To mitigate the effects of felülbecslik, various strategies have been proposed. These include seeking feedback from others, engaging in self-reflection, and employing calibration techniques to assess the accuracy of one's judgments. Additionally, fostering a culture of humility and continuous learning can help individuals and organizations recognize and address their overestimations. Understanding and acknowledging felülbecslik is crucial for improving decision-making processes and enhancing overall performance in various domains.