DelphiProzesse

DelphiProzesse, often shortened to Delphi, is a structured communication technique and forecasting method. It was originally developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. The core idea is to gather and consolidate expert opinions on a particular topic, often a complex future-oriented issue, in a systematic and iterative manner.

The process typically involves a panel of independent experts who are surveyed anonymously. This anonymity is crucial to prevent dominant personalities or group pressure from influencing the responses. A facilitator manages the process, sending out questionnaires and analyzing the results.

The first round usually involves open-ended questions to elicit a broad range of opinions and predictions. In subsequent rounds, the facilitator provides a summary of the experts' responses, including the range of opinions and justifications. Experts are then asked to revise their earlier answers in light of the group's feedback, while maintaining their anonymity. This iterative feedback loop continues until a degree of consensus is reached or until the experts' opinions stabilize.

The Delphi method is used in various fields, including technology forecasting, market research, policy analysis, and strategic planning. Its strengths lie in its ability to tap into collective wisdom, reduce bias, and generate reasoned forecasts on complex issues where hard data may be scarce. However, the effectiveness of a Delphi process is highly dependent on the selection of appropriate experts, the clarity of the questions, and the skill of the facilitator.