Árfolyamnekifutás

Árfolyamnekifutás is a Hungarian term that translates to "exchange rate attempt" or "currency attempt" in English. It refers to a situation in financial markets where a specific currency is being tested or challenged in its exchange rate against another currency. This testing can manifest in various ways, such as a sustained period of pressure on a currency's value, attempts by market participants to drive its price up or down, or the central bank's intervention to influence its trading band.

The term is often used in the context of managed float or fixed exchange rate regimes, where a currency's value is not entirely free-floating but is allowed to fluctuate within certain limits. An árfolyamnekifutás might occur if a currency approaches the upper or lower bound of its permitted trading band, prompting market players to see if it will break through or if the authorities will defend the band. Conversely, it can also describe periods of speculative attack or strong buying/selling pressure that challenge the prevailing market rate, even in more flexible regimes.

Central banks or monetary authorities may engage in actions during an árfolyamnekifutás to stabilize the currency. These actions can include buying or selling their own currency in the foreign exchange market, adjusting interest rates, or implementing capital controls. The outcome of an árfolyamnekifutás can significantly impact a nation's economy, affecting trade, inflation, and investment. A successful defense of an exchange rate can bolster confidence, while a breach of a target level can lead to significant adjustments and potential economic instability.