weerschatting

Weerschatting is the Dutch term for weather forecast or weather prediction. It describes the expected atmospheric conditions for a specific region and time period, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and cloud cover. Forecasts can be presented for different time horizons, from nowcasting for the next hours to longer-range outlooks for days ahead. In Dutch media and meteorological services, weerschatting is a standard service used by the public, businesses and authorities to plan activities and prepare for weather events.

The word combines weer (weather) and schatting (estimation or appraisal).

Modern weerschatting relies on numerical weather prediction models that simulate the atmosphere on grids based on data from weather stations, satellites, radar and balloons, combined through data assimilation. Forecasts are produced for various variables, including temperature, precipitation type and amount, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure and humidity. Short-term forecasts (nowcasting) use high-resolution radar and satellite data to predict weather in the next few hours; longer-range forecasts rely on ensemble runs to estimate probabilities and ranges of possible outcomes.

Forecast accuracy decreases with lead time and can vary by region. Ensemble forecasts give probability forecasts; local effects and microclimates can reduce reliability. Users are advised to check multiple sources and heed official warnings when applicable.

Forecasts are published by KNMI in the Netherlands, as well as regional meteorological services and media. They are distributed through websites, apps, television, radio and weather bulletins. The concept of weerschatting also covers seasonal outlooks and climate summaries.