tidsbias

Tidsbias, meaning "time bias" in Danish, Norwegian and Swedish, is a term used to describe systematic distortions in judgment or decision making that arise from temporal factors. It covers tendencies to overweight information from certain time periods, to favor near-term outcomes over distant ones, or to anchor reasoning to the current moment, which can lead to miscalibration in forecasts, risk assessments, and choices.

In psychology it overlaps with concepts such as present bias and temporal discounting. Present bias refers to preferring smaller, sooner rewards over larger, later ones, while temporal discounting describes how the perceived value of outcomes decreases with delay. Related phenomena include recency effects, where recent information is given disproportionate weight, and various framing effects tied to how time is presented or perceived.

Tidsbias can manifest in multiple contexts. In personal finance, individuals may spend more today and save less for the future because immediate gratification dominates. In forecasting and policy, analysts may project trends based on recent data without adequately accounting for longer-run cycles. In research, time-of-data-collection can influence results, reducing generalizability if temporal factors are not controlled.

Mitigation strategies aim to reduce time-related distortions. These include commitment devices, pre-commitment to long-term goals, and decision aids that balance short- and long-term impacts. Methodological safeguards such as preregistration, time-series cross-validation, and averaging across longer horizons can lessen temporal bias in analysis and interpretation.

See also: time perception, present bias, temporal discounting, recency effect, cognitive biases.