túlbecslés

Túlbecslés, often translated as overestimation, refers to the cognitive bias where an individual assigns a value, probability, or capability to something that is higher than its objective or actual worth. This can manifest in various aspects of life, from personal judgments to professional assessments.

In psychology, overestimation is a common cognitive distortion. It can lead to unrealistic expectations, poor decision-making, and potential disappointment. For instance, someone might overestimate their own abilities, leading them to take on tasks they are not equipped to handle. Conversely, overestimation can also apply to external factors, such as believing a risky investment will yield exceptionally high returns or underestimating the time required to complete a project.

This bias is often linked to optimism bias, where individuals tend to believe that negative events are less likely to happen to them and positive events are more likely. Overestimation can also be fueled by a lack of accurate information, personal biases, or emotional factors. Recognizing the tendency towards overestimation is a crucial step in developing more realistic assessments and improving decision-making processes. It encourages a more balanced and objective perspective, considering potential downsides and limitations alongside potential benefits and strengths.