surmise

Surmise is a word that can function as both a verb and a noun. As a verb, it means to suppose something is true without having certain or complete evidence. As a noun, a surmise is a belief or idea formed by guesswork or inference from incomplete information.

Etymology and origins: The term comes from Middle English, arising from Old French surmise, from the components sur- meaning over and mise meaning placing. The sense involves placing a conclusion over what is known, i.e., forming an idea based on limited facts.

Usage and nuances: Surmise conveys a tentative or cautious inference rather than a firm conclusion. It sits between guessing and inferring, often implying that the conclusion is plausible but not certain. In formal writing, to surmise can introduce reasoned speculation; in everyday speech, it can soften a claim by acknowledging its provisional nature. It is related to infer, guess, and suppose, but surmise emphasizes conjecture drawn from partial information rather than clear deduction.

Examples: “From the footprints by the river, I surmise that the hikers took an alternate route.” “She did not answer, but I surmised that she was displeased with the decision.”

Distinctions: Surmise differs from a deduction in that it does not require logical necessity, and it differs from a straightforward guess in that it is typically framed as a reasonable inference given some evidence, not a random assumption. In legal or scientific contexts, surmise is usually viewed as less authoritative than evidence-based inference.